Turf 2010 Jockey Stats

Thu, Jun 10, 2010

Betting News

With the 2010 turf Flat season now in full swing, I’ve been having a good look at the latest jockey stats on www.flatstats.co.uk. Some of the data on flatstats is free to access but full access to the site is on a subscription basis. It’s a mine of information though for those who are of a statistical bent. Here’s my thoughts on some of the obvious usual leading players so far.

RYAN MOORE

His Derby winning performance spoke volumes for his talent, his timing, his skill and his judgement. If it’s the statters what matters to you though then Ryan Moore stands up to the closest scrutiny on that front too. His current strike rate of 21% winners to runners is clear best amongst those jockeys riding decent numbers of horses this turf campaign and is exactly what’s required to see him comfortably on course to another jockey’s title.

He is, quite simply, da man.  It’s true that you won’t get rich backing his mounts blindly, in fact you won’t even break even. A loss on investments  though of just 6% on turnover is actually pretty darned good for a man riding so many well fancied horses and is further testament to the real depth of his quality. It’s a return on investment that compares very well with Dettori this year for example.

If you wanted to use his stats to turn a profit then it may well pay to focus on his mounts at the highest level and over distances longer than mile. There is some statistical evidence to suggest that his skills are even more effective over trips of over ten furlongs and good evidence that he’s a profitable man to have on your side in group races.

FRANKIE DETTORI

I was pretty surprised to see that Frankie has clocked up 20% winners on the turf this year. I shouldn’t have been though as the Italian is one of very few jockeys riding here capable of notching up that kind of wins to run ratio when he puts his mind to it.

Making money off his mounts is hard work though with the ‘Frankie Factor’ contributing to many of his rides going off at far shorter odds than their ability merits and backing him blind incurs a loss of more than 30% on turnover. Ouch!

If the Derby showed us why Ryan Moore is profitable to back in black type events, it also illustrated why Dettori is anything but profitable in that grade of late. The combination of Godolphin’s indifferent form in top quality races and the price compressing force of the Frankie Factor means that it’s hard to make money from this stylish pilot at the top meetings.

RICHARD HUGHES

Hughesy has started 2010 in great style which should come as no surprise to anyone who was paying close attention to his riding in 2009. I thought Richard Hughes was riding as well as I’ve ever seen him last turf campaign and some high profile successes have seen him pick up where he left off this time round.

A wins to run ratio of 19% is championship challenging material were he to really apply himself to the winner chasing treadmill of a title bid. I’m not sure that such a grind is really something that lights the Hughes fire though. As it is expect to see Richard continue to boot home winners at a decent – albeit not routinely profitable – rate and expect to see him play a hand at all the big meetings.

PAUL HANAGAN

Many were quick to dismiss Hanagan’s blistering start to the campaign as a flash in the pan. That judgement is harsh on what is clearly a very competent jockey but the recent stats of only a little over 15% winners over the last four weeks suggests that his strike rate is trending downwards towards his more normal average. I expect him to have a very good year – quite likely his best ever, but doubt that it will be good enough to make a massive impression at the top.

KIEREN FALLON

No sooner did I write here on the blog about Fallon’s lacklustre flat campaign so far than he started booting home doubles and trebles and four timers like there was no tomorrow. Not only did those wins prompt a few headlines, they also caused Fallon to comment that he’d turned a confidence corner.

I’m still not convinced.

At his best Fallon is a force of nature amongst riders. An intuitive and gifted horseman with a powerful competitive streak he is the opponent all jockeys fear most when on top of his game. I remain convinced though, both by his overall stats, and by what I’m seeing that he’s still nowhere near his brilliant best.

Bad luck and bad news continues to stalk him as closely as his own shadow. With a late arrival at Epsom and a no show in France the latest distractions. Kieren would be very hard pressed to beat a few of the top jockeys around now in a race for the title and even if there was no Ryan Moore, Richard Hughes, or Frankie Dettori around I can’t help feeling that Kieren might still contrive to beat himself one way or the other either off the track or on it but we’ll see.

TOM QUEALLY

Despite his association with one of the most popular yards in racing, Queally’s mounts themselves do not always attract the support you might expect and he’s been a very profitable rider to back during the turf campaign so far. His overall strike rate of 14% is top notch without being earth shattering but a return on investment of 34% is very healthy indeed.

He got plenty of stick (some of it justified) for his ride in the 1000 Guineas but overall he is doing well and is certainly a punters pal on the bare figures.

RICHARD HILLS

The object of a lot of ill informed and often frankly stupid criticism Hills continues to boot home winners with a metronomic consistency. Yes, he gets to ride plenty of good horses in not very demanding races but his stats remain remarkably solid. He is very often amongst the top handful of jockeys around when judged on strike rate.

He enjoyed a terrific campaign on the turf in 2009 and there is a suspicion looking at this years returns that he is now (finally some would say) being overbet in relation to his mounts’ chances. He shows a loss on turnover invested of over 30% on the grass so far this year.

Whilst he remains a very capable jock, turning a profit by backing him has suddenly become a lot harder now that the penny appears to have dropped with backers.

JAMIE SPENCER

Enigmatic is a term that could have been coined for this rider. Put him on a well fancied runner with conditions to suit and his strike rate is no better than many and indeed worse than some. Stick him in a difficult draw and he’s very likely to pull a rabbit out of the hat and produce a consummate display of nerve and skill to provide an unlikely win.

I love to watch him ride but prefer to back him only when the odds look stacked against him!

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6 Responses to “Turf 2010 Jockey Stats”

  1. Chris B Says:

    An interesting read, Sean. Whilst I would agree that Richard Hills attracts a lot of unfair criticism, the fact remains that from a punter’s perspective he is as weak as a kitten in a finish. This is, however, countered by the fact that he is one of the best judges of pace around and very often steals races by getting the fractions spot on.

    Ryan Moore, in my opinion, is destined to become one of the greatest jockeys ever to grace the turf. He makes far fewer mistakes than most other jockeys, and, like McCoy, has a knack of winning on horses which no other jockey would have won on.

    The most underestimated jockey around, in my opinion, is Hayley Turner. Again, an excellent judge of pace who invariably has her mounts in the right place at the right time, and stronger than a lot of her male counterparts in a finish. If I am ever fortunate enough to own a racehorse in the future, Hayley would be only second to Ryan in my choice of jockey.

  2. Santiburi Says:

    Chris B, to endorse your point on Hayley Turner, did you see her ride yesterday on Collect Art? Brilliant. Really strong in the finish albeit on a really willing horse seemingly despite the blinkers!
    As a corollary, seems like there’s an OK form line around Collect Art now as the 2nd and 4th in its previous run also won on the Yarmouth card yesterday.

  3. ken cambs Says:

    Just to put Ryan Moore’s 21% strike-rate into perspective, Sean, you probably might not remember this but the jockey title for 1938 went to Gordon Richards with the following stats.
    Won 206
    Second 138
    Third 135
    Unplaced 495
    Total Rides 974
    representing a strike-rate of 21.14
    So perhaps Ryan is nearing greatness.

  4. seanboyce Says:

    Hello there Chris, and welcome aboard!
    Hayley is a very good jockey in my view. I’d say she’s short of the top dozen or so personally and would argue that her stats would support that but it’s all about opinions. I do think that Ryan’s record is clear though and I agree with you that he can dominate now for the forseeable future. I’d like to think that Buick and Probert can continue to progress, I’m a big fan of both guys.
    Ken, you’re spot on. Year after year we see that it’s only the very best who can maintain that kind of strike rate.

  5. ken cambs Says:

    A well-timed article Sean. Two winners so far for Ryan at Newbury with another four decent rides to come. Could you have hit the jackpot, I wonder?

  6. seanboyce Says:

    I haven’t played at Newbury today Ken, so doubltess he’ll go through the card!

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